A CERL-run tabletop exercise held in the leadup to the 2024 presidential election—involving more than three dozen high-ranking military and national security experts, current and past officials in state and local government, and civil society leaders—explored what would happen if a president deployed federal troops in a domestic context, at the objection of a governor, to suppress civil unrest. That exercise offers lessons about the ongoing standoff between state and federal forces in Minnesota amid President Trump’s crack down on immigration.
Expert commentary by CERL affiliates on lessons drawn from the tabletop exercise was featured in and received significant coverage by media outlets, including The Guardian, PBS, and The Hill.
OPINION
We Ran High-Level US Civil War Simulations. Minnesota Is Exactly How They Start
By Claire Finkelstein | The Guardian | Jan. 21, 2026
CERL’s Professor Claire Finkelstein, faculty director of the center, explains how findings from CERL’s 2024 simulation, particularly those relating to green-on-green violence, are relevant to Minnesota.
“The core danger we identified is now emerging: a violent confrontation between state and federal military forces in a major American city,” wrote Professor Finkelstein.
INTERVIEW
with Claire Finkelstein | PBS News Hour | Jan. 27, 2026
Professor Claire Finkelstein spoke with Geoff Bennett of PBS News Hour about the motivation behind CERL’s hypotheticals, similarities between the center’s simulation and events in Minnesota, and the importance of accountability.
“If courts can’t or won’t resolve the conflict between the federal government and the state, then we have a serious threat to our democracy,” said Professor Finkelstein.
INTERVIEW
with Mark Zaid | MeidasTouch Network | Jan. 30, 2026
Mark Zaid, member of CERL’s executive board, spoke with attorney and former MSNBC anchor Katie Phang about the state of democracy and his takeaways as a participant of the 2024 exercise.
“In the scenario that we role-played, I was cut off at the knees. The lawyers were unable to do what we would normally do, because the court system was either shut down or overwhelmed with cases,” said Zaid.
Other media coverage
- Riana Mahtani, “‘Risk of escalation’: Penn civil war simulation mirrors Minneapolis today, professor says,” The Daily Pennsylvanian, Feb. 2, 2026
Read at the DP ↗ - Ella Lee, “Minnesota standoff with Trump administration stokes fears of civil war,” The Hill, Jan. 31, 2026
Read at The Hill ↗ - Scripps News Group, “Running simulations: What factors could lead America to another civil war?” Scripps News, Jan. 29, 2026
Read at Scripps News ↗ - “How the ICE killings could lead to a civil war,” ABC News (Australia) Daily podcast, Jan. 27, 2026
Watch at ABC News ↗ - “Expert questions self-defense claim in Minneapolis shooting,” Deutsche Welle, Jan. 25, 2026
Watch at DW ↗ - Brad Reed, “Expert Who Ran Simulations on ‘How Civil Wars Start’ Warns Minnesota Is Exactly What It Looks Like,” Common Dreams, Jan. 21, 2026
Read at Common Dreams ↗
CERL resources
- A summary of the tabletop exercises and core findings is available in “Democracy on the Front Lines: After Action Report on Civil Unrest and Threats to the Rule of Law in the 2024 Presidential Election,” issued on Oct. 22, 2024.
Read After Action Report ↗ Read Press Release ↗ - A second report, “Federal Troop Deployments to Quell Civil Unrest: From Tabletop Exercises to Reality,” issued on Aug. 19, 2025, discusses takeaways from the simulation in the context of President Trump’s domestic deployment of federal troops. Read Report ↗