The Conference
Discussions of the logic of deterrence, both theoretical and practical, dominated the literature on just war theory during the Cold War. Despite diminished attention, the topic remains of vital importance to the current national security concerns, playing a central role in debates over Cyberwarfare and the use of non-conventional weapons or strategies. This Roundtable seeks to revive traditional discussions about the logic of deterrence, but to place this topic in a contemporary setting. Many of the former questions at the intersection of rational choice theory and ethics apply with renewed force in a post-Cold War world: Is it permissible to threaten to do something it would not otherwise be permissible to do? Does precommitment to an otherwise impermissible course of action render it permissible, given that it is accompanied by advance warning? Does deterrence require public notice to constitute a legitimate public policy? These older theoretical questions prove particularly challenging in an age of highly advanced technologies of war. How does deterrence work if the threatened attack cannot be traced back to the state that launched it? How should deterrence theory handle enemies whose actions are highly unpredictable and decentralized, and where the primary actors might not be interested in sparing civilian lives or even avoiding their own death? Is it legitimate to issue threats of kinetic action to deter a Cyber attack? Given the complexities of modern warfare and counter terrorism operations, the challenges of deterrent theory are now ripe for reexamination.
Schedule
Friday, November 16th
| 8:30 – 9:00 a.m. | Continental Breakfast – Shuster Room, Silverman 147 |
| 9:00 – 10:30 a.m. | Welcome Remarks – Dean Michael Fitts, University of Pennsylvania Law SchoolSession 1: The Logic of Threats and Deterrence Shuster Room, Silverman 147 Moderator: Sharon Lloyd, Professor of Philosophy, University of Southern California Presentation: Jules Zacher, Attorney-at-Law |
| 10:30 – 11:00 a.m. | Break |
| 11:00 – 12:30 p.m. | Session 2: Two Models of Deterrence: Expected Utility and Constrained Maximization Shuster Room, Silverman 147 Moderator: Jens Ohlin, Associate Professor of Law, Cornell University |
| 12:30 – 1:30 p.m. | Lunch – Levy Conference Room, Silverman 245 |
| 1:30 – 4:30 p.m. | Break/Transportation to Club Quarters 1628 Chestnut Street Philadelphia, PA 19103 |
| 4:30 – 6:00 p.m. | Session 3: Deterrence, Intentions and Resolute Choice The Racquet Club of Philadelphia 215 S. 16th Street Philadelphia, PA 19102Moderator: Joseph Mintoff, Senior Lecturer, The University of Newcastle |
| 6:00 p.m. | Cocktails and Dinner at The Racquet Club of Philadelphia 215 S. 16th Street Philadelphia, PA 19102 Keynote Address: Sean Kanuck, National Intelligence Officer for Cyber Issues within the Office of the Director of National IntelligenceSean Kanuck Sovereign Discourse on Cyber Conflict Under International Law, Texas Law Review, 2010. |
Saturday, November 17th
| 9:00 – 9:30 a.m. | Continental Breakfast – Shuster Room, Silverman 147 |
| 9:30 – 11:00 a.m. | Session 4: Prevention, Preemption and Credible Threats Shuster Room, Silverman 147 Moderator: Claire Finkelstein, Algernon Biddle Professor of Law and Professor of Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania |
| 11:00 – 11:30 a.m. | Break |
| 11:30 – 1:00 p.m. | Session 5: Deterrence, Law Enforcement, and the Permissiblity of Threatening Shuster Room, Silverman 147 Moderator: Russell Christopher, Professor of Law, The University of Tulsa College of Law\ |
| 1:00 – 2:00 p.m. | Lunch – Levy Conference Room, Silverman 245 |
| 2:00 – 3:30 p.m. | Session 6: Deterrence and Cybersecurity Shuster Room, Silverman 147 Moderator: Randall Dipert, Professor of Philosophy, University of Buffalo |
Participants
Project for Nuclear Awareness
Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy
Western States legal Foundation
The University of Tulsa College of Law
Chairman of Federal Systems
President, Dell Dailey and Family
University of Buffalo
Penn Law
University of Pittsburgh
Ave Maria School of Law
Global Security Agency
University of California, Santa Barbara
Rutgers School of Law
RanneyWidener Law
National Intelligence Office for Cyber Issues
Penn Law
New York University
University of Southern California
Dalhousie University
The University of Newcastle
University of Maryland
Cornell Law School
University of Arizon
Rutgers School of Law
Attorney-At-Law
Background Readings
Session 1: The Logic of Threats and Deterrence
Readings:
- Thomas Schelling
The Strategy of Conflict, Chapters 1 & 2, 1960 - Gregory Kavka
Moral Paradoxes of Nuclear Deterrence, Chapters 1 and 2, 1987. - Frederick Kroon
“Deterrence and the Fragility of Rationality”, Ethics, 1996.
Session 2: Two Models of Deterrence: Expected Utility and Constrained Maximization
- Gregory Kavka
Moral Paradoxes of Nuclear Deterrence, Chapter 3, 1987. - Stephen Darwall
Rational Agent, Rational Act, Philosophical Topics, 1986. - David Gauthier
“Deterrence, Maximization and Rationality”, The Security Gamble, 1984. - Derek Parfit,
Reasons and Persons, pp. 12-24, 1984. - David Gauthier
“Rationality and the Rational Aim”, Reading Parfit, 1997.
Session 3: Deterrence, Intentions and Resolute Choice
- Gregory Kavka
The Toxin Puzzle, Analysis, 1983. - David Gauthier,
“Rethinking the Toxin Puzzle”, Rational Commitment and Social Justice, 1998. - Michael A. Bratman
Toxin, Temptation and the Stability of Intention, ational Commitment to Social Justice, 1998. - Ken Levy
On the Rationalist Solution to Kavka’s Toxin Puzzle, Pacific Philosophical Quarterly, 2009 - Joseph Mintoff,
“Can Intentions Make Actions Rational?”, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 2002.
Session 4: Prevention, Preemption and Credible Threats
- David Gauthier
Assure and Threaten, Ethics, 1994. - Duncan MacIntosh, “Assuring, Threatening, a Fully Maximizing Theory of Practical Rationality, and the Practical Duties of Agents”, Manuscript
- Claire Finkelstein & Leo Katz,
“Contrived Defenses and Deterrent Threats: Two Facets of One Problem”, Ohio State Journal of Criminal Law, 2008 (Edited). - Russell Christopher,
“An Infinite Regress of Impermissible Threats: An Argument Against the Traditionalist View of Deterrent Threats”, Manuscript. - John Hare,
“Credibility and Bluff”, Nuclear Weapons and the Future of Humanity: The Fundamental Questions, 1982.
Session 5: Deterrence, Law Enforcement, and the Permissiblity of Threatening
- Larry Alexander
“The Doomsday Machine: Proportionality, Punishment and Prevention”, The Monist, 1980 (Edited). - Warren Quinn
“The Right to Threaten and the Right to Punish”, Philosophy and Public Affairs, 1985. - Claire Finkelstein
“Threats and Preemptive Practices”, Legal Theory, 1999. - Paul Robinson and John Darley
“Does Criminal Law Deter? A Behavioral Science Investigation”, Legal Studies, 2004 (Edited). - Justin Logan
“The Bottom Line on Iran: The Costs and Benefits of Preventive War versus Deterrence”, Policy Analysis, 2006. - Kevin Govern
“National Solutions to an International Scourge: Prosecuting Piracy Domestically as a Viable Alternative to International Tribunals” University of Miami International & Comparative Law Review, 2011. (Edited)
Session 6: Deterrence and Cybersecurity
- Randall Dipert
The Ethics of Cyberwarfare, Ethics and Emerging Military Technologies, 2010. - James Cook
Cyberation and Just War Doctrine: A Response to Randall Dipert, Journal of Military Ethics, 2010. - Daniel Rosenfield
Rethinking Cyberwar, Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, 2009. - Vincent Manzo,
“Deterrence and Escalation in Cross-domain Operations: Where Do Space and Cyberspace Fit?”, Joint Force Quarterly, 2012.
Required Readings
Ethics and Warfare
Thomas Nagel
War and Massacre, Philosophy and Public Affairs, Vol. 1, No. 2 (Winter, 1972), 123-144.
Nuclear Deterrence
Robert Butterworth, Peter Marquez, John Sheldon and Eric Sterner
Returning to Fundamentals: Deterrence and U.S. National Security in the 21st Century George C. Marshall Institute, 2011.
Kevin Chilton and Greg Weaver
Waging Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century Strategic Studies Quarterly, 2009.
Randall Dipert
Preventive War and the Epistemological Dimension of the Morality of War, Journal of Military Ethics, 2006.
Gerald Dworkin
Nuclear Intentions, Ethics, 1985.
Jonathan Granoff
Nuclear Weapons, Ethics, Morals and Law, Brigham Young University Law Review, 2000.
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and Its 2005 Review Conference: A Legal and Political Analysis, International Law and Politics, September 2007.
Richard A. McCormick
Nuclear Deterrence and the Problem of Intention, Catholics and Nuclear War, pp. 168-182, 1983.
Charles J. Moxley, Jr., John Burroughs, & Jonathan Granoff
Nuclear Weapons and Compliance with International Humanitarian Law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Fordham International Law Journal, 2011.
Keith B. Payne
The Fallacies of Cold War and Deterrence, Chapter 2
Preemption and Prevention
Larry Alexander
The Doomsday Machine: Proportionality, Punishment and Prevention, The Monist, 1980.
Allen Buchanan
Justifying Preventive War, Preemption: Military Action and Moral Justification, Chapter 5, 2007.
Kevin Govern
National Solutions to an International Scourge: Prosecuting Piracy Domestically as a Viable Alternative to International Tribunals” University of Miami International & Comparative Law Review, 2011.
Paul Robinson and John Darley
Does Criminal Law Deter? A Behavioral Science Investigation Legal Studies, 2004
David Rodin
The Problem with Prevention, Preemption: Military Action and Moral Justification, Chapter 6, 2007.
Suzanne Uniacke
On Getting One’s Retaliation in First, Preemption: Military Action and Moral Justification, Chapter 3, 2007.
Rationality and Deterrence
Daniel Farrell
Utility Maximization Intentions and the Theory of Rational Choice, Philosophical Topics 21, 1993.
Claire Finkelstein & Leo Katz
Contrived Defenses and Deterrent Threats: Two Facets of One Problem Ohio State Journal of Criminal Law, 2008
Gregory Kavka
Some Paradoxes of Deterrence, The Journal of Philosophy, 1978.
Anthony Kenny
The Logic of Deterrence, Chapters 4-6
Duncan MacIntosh
Co-operative Solutions to the Prisoner’s Dilemma, Philosophical Studies, pp. 309-321, 1991.
Edward F. McClennen
Prisoner’s Dilemma and Resolute Choice, Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation, 1985.
Alfred Mele
Intentions, Reasons, and Beliefs: Morals of the Toxin Puzzle, Philosophical Studies, 1992.
Michael Dummett
The Morality of Deterrence, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 1986
International Court of Justice: Legality of the Treat or Use of Nuclear Weapons
Advisory Opinion of 8 July 1996
Declaration of President Bedjaoui (translation)
Declaration of Judge Herczegh (translation)
Declaration of Judge Vereshchetin
Declaration of Judge Ferrari Bravo (translation)
Separate Opinion of Judge Guillaume (translation)
Separate Opinion of Judge Ranjeva (translation)
Separate Opinion of Judge Fleischhauer
Dissenting Opinion of Vice-President Schwebel
Dissenting Opinion of Judge Oda
Dissenting Opinion of Judge Shahabuddeen
Dissenting Opinion of Judge Weeramantry
Contact us
For any questions regarding the conference or registration, please contact: Jennifer Cohen at jenn.cohen@appc.upenn.edu
