CENTER FOR ETHICS AND THE RULE OF LAW​

The Logic of Deterrence and the Changing Face of Warfare

November 16 -
 17, 2012

The Conference

Discussions of the logic of deterrence, both theoretical and practical, dominated the literature on just war theory during the Cold War. Despite diminished attention, the topic remains of vital importance to the current national security concerns, playing a central role in debates over Cyberwarfare and the use of non-conventional weapons or strategies. This Roundtable seeks to revive traditional discussions about the logic of deterrence, but to place this topic in a contemporary setting. Many of the former questions at the intersection of rational choice theory and ethics apply with renewed force in a post-Cold War world: Is it permissible to threaten to do something it would not otherwise be permissible to do? Does precommitment to an otherwise impermissible course of action render it permissible, given that it is accompanied by advance warning? Does deterrence require public notice to constitute a legitimate public policy? These older theoretical questions prove particularly challenging in an age of highly advanced technologies of war. How does deterrence work if the threatened attack cannot be traced back to the state that launched it? How should deterrence theory handle enemies whose actions are highly unpredictable and decentralized, and where the primary actors might not be interested in sparing civilian lives or even avoiding their own death? Is it legitimate to issue threats of kinetic action to deter a Cyber attack? Given the complexities of modern warfare and counter terrorism operations, the challenges of deterrent theory are now ripe for reexamination.

Schedule

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Friday, November 16th

8:30 – 9:00 a.m.Continental Breakfast – Shuster Room, Silverman 147
9:00 – 10:30 a.m.Welcome Remarks – Dean Michael Fitts, University of Pennsylvania Law SchoolSession 1: The Logic of Threats and Deterrence
Shuster Room, Silverman 147
Moderator: Sharon Lloyd, Professor of Philosophy, University of Southern California
Presentation: Jules Zacher, Attorney-at-Law
10:30 – 11:00 a.m.Break
11:00 – 12:30 p.m.Session 2: Two Models of Deterrence: Expected Utility and Constrained Maximization
Shuster Room, Silverman 147
Moderator: Jens Ohlin, Associate Professor of Law, Cornell University
12:30 – 1:30 p.m.Lunch – Levy Conference Room, Silverman 245
1:30 – 4:30 p.m.Break/Transportation to Club Quarters
1628 Chestnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19103
4:30 – 6:00 p.m.Session 3: Deterrence, Intentions and Resolute Choice
The Racquet Club of Philadelphia
215 S. 16th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19102Moderator: Joseph Mintoff, Senior Lecturer, The University of Newcastle
6:00 p.m.Cocktails and Dinner at The Racquet Club of Philadelphia
215 S. 16th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19102
Keynote Address: Sean Kanuck, National Intelligence Officer for Cyber Issues within the Office of the Director of National IntelligenceSean Kanuck
Sovereign Discourse on Cyber Conflict Under International LawTexas Law Review, 2010.

Saturday, November 17th

9:00 – 9:30 a.m.Continental Breakfast – Shuster Room, Silverman 147
9:30 – 11:00 a.m.Session 4:  Prevention, Preemption and Credible Threats
Shuster Room, Silverman 147
Moderator: Claire Finkelstein, Algernon Biddle Professor of Law and Professor of Philosophy, University of Pennsylvania
11:00 – 11:30 a.m.Break
11:30 – 1:00 p.m.Session 5: Deterrence, Law Enforcement, and the Permissiblity of Threatening
Shuster Room, Silverman 147
Moderator: Russell Christopher, Professor of Law, The University of Tulsa College of Law\
1:00 – 2:00 p.m.Lunch – Levy Conference Room, Silverman 245
2:00 – 3:30 p.m.Session 6:  Deterrence and Cybersecurity
Shuster Room, Silverman 147
Moderator: Randall Dipert, Professor of Philosophy, University of Buffalo

Participants

Mr. Ed Aguilar


Project for Nuclear Awareness

Mr. John Burroughs

Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy

Ms. Jacqueline Cabasso

Western States legal Foundation

Professor Russell Christopher

The University of Tulsa College of Law

Mr. William Craven

Chairman of Federal Systems

Ambassador Dell Dailey

President, Dell Dailey and Family

Professor Randall Dipert

University of Buffalo

Professor David Gauthier

University of Pittsburgh

Professor Kevin Govern

Ave Maria School of Law

Mr. Jonathan Granoff

Global Security Agency

Professor Matt Hanser

University of California, Santa Barbara

Professor Adil Ahmad Haque

Rutgers School of Law

Mr. Sean Kanuck

National Intelligence Office for Cyber Issues

Dr. Joerg Kuehnelt

New York University

Professor Sharon Lloyd

University of Southern California

Professor Duncan MacIntosh

Dalhousie University

Dr. Joseph Mintoff

The University of Newcastle

Professor Christopher Morris

University of Maryland

Professor Jens Ohlin

Cornell Law School

Professor Connie Rosati

University of Arizon

Professor Alec Walen

Rutgers School of Law

Mr. Jules Zacher

Attorney-At-Law

Background Readings

Session 1: The Logic of Threats and Deterrence

Readings:

Session 2: Two Models of Deterrence: Expected Utility and Constrained Maximization

Session 3: Deterrence, Intentions and Resolute Choice

Session 4:  Prevention, Preemption and Credible Threats

Session 5: Deterrence, Law Enforcement, and the Permissiblity of Threatening

Session 6:  Deterrence and Cybersecurity

Required Readings

Ethics and Warfare

Thomas Nagel
War and Massacre, Philosophy and Public Affairs, Vol. 1, No. 2 (Winter, 1972), 123-144.

Nuclear Deterrence

Robert Butterworth, Peter Marquez, John Sheldon and Eric Sterner
Returning to Fundamentals: Deterrence and U.S. National Security in the 21st Century George C. Marshall Institute, 2011.

Kevin Chilton and Greg Weaver
Waging Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century Strategic Studies Quarterly, 2009.

Randall Dipert
Preventive War and the Epistemological Dimension of the Morality of War, Journal of Military Ethics, 2006.

Gerald Dworkin
Nuclear Intentions, Ethics, 1985.

Jonathan Granoff
Nuclear Weapons, Ethics, Morals and Law, Brigham Young University Law Review, 2000.
The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and Its 2005 Review Conference: A Legal and Political Analysis, International Law and Politics, September 2007.

Richard A. McCormick
Nuclear Deterrence and the Problem of Intention, Catholics and Nuclear War, pp. 168-182, 1983.

Charles J. Moxley, Jr., John Burroughs, & Jonathan Granoff
Nuclear Weapons and Compliance with International Humanitarian Law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Fordham International Law Journal, 2011.

Keith B. Payne
The Fallacies of Cold War and Deterrence, Chapter 2

Preemption and Prevention

Larry Alexander
The Doomsday Machine: Proportionality, Punishment and Prevention, The Monist, 1980.

Allen Buchanan
Justifying Preventive War, Preemption: Military Action and Moral Justification, Chapter 5, 2007.

Kevin Govern
National Solutions to an International Scourge: Prosecuting Piracy Domestically as a Viable Alternative to International TribunalsUniversity of Miami International & Comparative Law Review, 2011.

Paul Robinson and John Darley
Does Criminal Law Deter? A Behavioral Science Investigation Legal Studies, 2004

David Rodin
The Problem with Prevention, Preemption: Military Action and Moral Justification, Chapter 6, 2007.

Suzanne Uniacke
On Getting One’s Retaliation in First, Preemption: Military Action and Moral Justification, Chapter 3, 2007.

Rationality and Deterrence

Daniel Farrell
Utility Maximization Intentions and the Theory of Rational Choice, Philosophical Topics 21, 1993.

Claire Finkelstein & Leo Katz
Contrived Defenses and Deterrent Threats: Two Facets of One Problem Ohio State Journal of Criminal Law, 2008

Gregory Kavka
Some Paradoxes of Deterrence, The Journal of Philosophy, 1978.

Anthony Kenny
The Logic of Deterrence, Chapters 4-6

Duncan MacIntosh
Co-operative Solutions to the Prisoner’s Dilemma, Philosophical Studies, pp. 309-321, 1991.

Edward F. McClennen
Prisoner’s Dilemma and Resolute Choice, Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation, 1985.

Alfred Mele
Intentions, Reasons, and Beliefs: Morals of the Toxin Puzzle, Philosophical Studies, 1992.

Michael Dummett
The Morality of Deterrence, Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 1986

International Court of Justice: Legality of the Treat or Use of Nuclear Weapons

Advisory Opinion of 8 July 1996

Declaration of President Bedjaoui (translation)

Declaration of Judge Herczegh (translation)

Declaration of Judge Shi

Declaration of Judge Vereshchetin

Declaration of Judge Ferrari Bravo (translation)

Separate Opinion of Judge Guillaume (translation)

Separate Opinion of Judge Ranjeva (translation)

Separate Opinion of Judge Fleischhauer

Dissenting Opinion of Vice-President Schwebel

Dissenting Opinion of Judge Oda

Dissenting Opinion of Judge Shahabuddeen

Dissenting Opinion of Judge Weeramantry

Dissenting Opinion of Judge Koroma

Dissenting Opinion of Judge Higgins

Contact us

For any questions regarding the conference or registration, please contact: Jennifer Cohen at [email protected]

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The Logic of Deterrence and the Changing Face of Warfare